There is something that many respected authors and experts on innovation do not seem to acknowledge:

You cannot de-risk greatness.

If you want to create something that is truly innovative you have to embrace uncertainty and accept that it might fail. Innovation is about trying things that are new or have not been done, which entails risk. The idea of risk-free innovation is a contradiction in terms.

Think of it like squeezing a balloon: as the inventiveness of the idea goes up, the certainty of success goes down and vice versa. It has always been this way.

The advocates of highly structured research and product development methodologies always make the same sales pitch: "90% of startups fail. X% of innovation initiatives fail. Follow our process and you're less likely to fail."

What they don't tell you is that "not failing" is at the bottom end of human ambition and isn't the point of innovation at all. If your only goal in life is to not fail, you can forget accomplishing anything meaningful.

As you approach the top end — trying to create something truly awesome with the corresponding payoffs for it — there is always significant risk involved.

Think about it. If there was a reliable process for producing billion dollar companies, everyone who followed it would be obscenely wealthy and investors would get it right every time. 

In summary: following ultra-rigorous processes is most likely to produce average to good products with comparatively high degrees of certainty. 

Visionaries willing to take risks are more likely to produce something great but are also more likely to fail. 

You have to choose your aspiration. There is no free lunch. 

See this post on LinkedIn